Bitcoin's Next Big Test: Will BTC Drop Below $100K by End of 2025?

By DR.KEYNAAN August 29, 2025

Bitcoin Likely to Drop Below $100K This Year: In-Depth Analysis

Market Sentiment & Prediction Market Odds

Prediction market Polymarket has sharply raised its odds that Bitcoin will dip below $100K before the end of 2025. The probability currently floats around 62%, down somewhat from a high of 72% earlier in the week . Another source puts the likelihood at 61% .

This rising bearish sentiment reflects investor caution and growing concerns about Bitcoin's near-term resilience.

Whale Activity & Market Dynamics

A noteworthy whale transaction, where 22,400 BTC was swapped for Ethereum, sent ripples through the market, shifting capital flows away from Bitcoin and putting pressure on its price .

Meanwhile, perpetual futures markets show open interest has surged to a two-year high of over 310,000 BTC (around $34 billion), paired with funding rates spiking from 3% to nearly 11%. K33 Research flags this aggressive build-up of leverage as matching setups that preceded sharp drawdowns in 2023–2024 . Indeed, recent data confirm a $100M leveraged liquidation event, reinforcing the risk of a steep correction .

Institutional Support & Accumulation

On the flip side, Metaplanet, a Japanese firm formerly in the hotelier and media business, has dramatically pivoted toward Bitcoin accumulation. It plans to raise up to $880M via share issuance, allocating $835–$837M toward Bitcoin acquisitions between September and October 2025 . Their target? Holding over 210,000 BTC by 2027—about 1% of all Bitcoin in circulation .

This massive corporate treasury strategy, paired with ongoing ETF inflows and institutional investors ramping up exposure, indicates underlying demand and confidence .

Summary & Strategic Considerations

Bearish Execution Risks: High leverage, elevated funding rates, and concentrated whale sell-offs suggest a significant risk of a drop below $100K.

Structural Support: Large-scale accumulation by firms like Metaplanet and ETF-related inflows offer a buffer.

Critical Pivot Level: The $100K mark remains a psychological and technical pivot. A close below this threshold could signal deeper corrections.

Key Metrics to Watch: Monitor open interest, funding rates, liquidation volumes, and whale activity, alongside institutional buying trends.

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